Intro to Incrementality Series: Part 3

In Part 1 of our Intro to Incrementality series, we covered the fundamentals-measuring incremental lift by comparing test (exposed) and control (holdout) groups. In Part 2, we explored how to create accurate control groups using ghost bidding to eliminate bias and avoid skewing incrementality analysis.

Now, in this final installment, we’ll show you how to apply incrementality analysis in real time to optimize your campaigns, improve ROI, and make smarter marketing decisions. From uncovering granular insights to factoring in cost, incrementality isn’t just about measurement—it’s about actionable optimization.

The Basketball Example: Real-World Complexities

Let’s revisit our basketball analogy a final time: An NBA team hires a shooting coach for one of two players, both of whom start with a 40% free throw success rate. After a year, Player B—who worked with the coach—improved to 80%, while Player A improved naturally to 50%.

This analogy illustrates the basics of incrementality: the test group (Player B), the control (Player A), and the new variable (the coach). However, it neglects some real-world complexities:

1. Timeliness: If the coach’s impact is evident mid-season, waiting until the end of the year to evaluate results may be inefficient. Acting sooner could benefit both players—or in marketing terms, improve campaign performance faster.
2. Granularity: What’s driving the improvement? Is it extra practice, an adjustment in form, or a mental confidence boost? Understanding the why matters. Similarly, marketers must understand which variables are driving incremental results.
3. Cost: The coach is an investment. The team needs to evaluate whether the improvement justifies the expense and, if so, how to allocate resources effectively.

Marketing is no different. Incrementality analysis is messy, nuanced, and ongoing. Let’s clean up the mess.

Putting Incrementality to Work

To make incrementality actionable, brands and agencies must embrace three key principles:

1. Real-Time Analysis

Incrementality isn’t a one-and-done exercise. Marketers don’t have unlimited budgets or the luxury of testing campaigns in isolation. Real-time analysis allows brands to adjust strategies dynamically, optimizing performance as results unfold.

For instance, incrementality after two weeks may differ from results after two months-but early insights can still drive valuable decision-making.

2. Granular Insights

Broad media type analysis (e.g., evaluating all CTV campaigns together) can only tell you so much. Granular insights-breaking down performance by publisher, audience, or creative-are essential for actionable optimization.

For instance, instead of asking whether CTV works, ask which publishers (e.g., Hulu vs. Pluto TV), audiences (e.g., intent-based vs. demographic-based), or creatives (e.g., :15 vs. :30-second spots) deliver the most incremental value.

3. Money Matters

Incrementality analysis is incomplete without factoring in cost. Metrics like cost per incremental action (iCPA) and incremental return on ad spend (iROAS) go beyond traditional cost per action (CPA) and last-touch attribution to ensure your budget is allocated toward the most effective tactics.

CTV Test Campaign: A Practical Example

A brand adds a $1k CTV test campaign to its marketing mix, which previously included only search and social media. The goal is to optimize to the lowest cost per action (CPA). The campaign tests one creative, one intent-based audience, and three publishers: Hulu, Sling, and Pluto TV.

Here’s the performance data from the CTV campaign based on checkouts and CPA:

At first glance, Sling appears to be the top performer due to its low CPA. But incrementality analysis provides a different perspective:

The takeaway? Without incrementality analysis, the brand would have funneled more budget into Sling, optimizing its campaign in a way that was actually counter to its bottom line, toward conversions that would have happened anyway. By incorporating incrementality, it sees that Hulu delivers the lowest cost per incremental action (iCPA) and can reallocate budget accordingly.

The Power of Incrementality-Driven Optimization

This example highlights a common marketing pitfall: platforms and publishers often overreport conversions by attributing them to their own channels, regardless of cross-channel interactions. Incrementality analysis cuts through this noise, giving marketers a clearer picture of which ads and channels drive true incremental results.

Using metrics like iCPA and iROAS ensures smarter budget allocation—not just within a single channel but across your entire media mix.

Conclusion

As brands and agencies become more strategic about their marketing budgets and cross-channel complexity continues to grow, incrementality analysis is no longer optional but essential. It doesn’t just track performance—it answers the fundamental question: Did this ad actually cause the action, or was it just along for the ride?

By working with a media execution partner that applies real-time, granular, and cost-aware optimization strategies, brands and agencies can ensure their media spend drives true impact on marketing performance and business results.

The Digital Remedy Platform not only offers incrementality analysis as a standard feature but also enables advanced ad optimization, ensuring every media dollar is strategically allocated to deliver measurable success.

Ready to make every dollar count? Speak with a member of our team today to learn how incrementality can revolutionize your marketing strategy.